Methods to Assess the Effects of Climate Change on Health

❏ A variety of methods are required to assess the potential impacts of climate change on human health, including: spatial analogue studies, predictive modelling (biological models or empirical-statistical models) and expert judgement. ❏ Climate impact and adaptation assessments should incorporate the following steps: selecting the most appropriate climate and socio-economic scenarios; validation and calibration of models; description of sources of uncertainty; sensitivity analyses; and the evaluation of adaptation strategies and autonomous adjustments. ❏ It is difficult to detect any impacts of climate change on health outcomes in the UK at present. Monitoring of health indicators, including enhanced surveillance of diseases sensitive to climate, needs to be developed in order to detect and respond to impacts.